Chapter 1: Green Tech Growth and COP28

Will COP28 acknowledge the remarkable advancements in green technology? It would be refreshing if global leaders could effectively address the pressing issues we face. The upcoming United Nations climate change conference, COP28, relies on data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which serves as the scientific foundation for these discussions.

The latest IPCC report, primarily compiled in 2021, has taken two years to finalize. One has to wonder whether the committee is aware of the astounding 50% increase in solar installations since the report's completion. Historically, their predictions have leaned towards a linear growth model, often overlooking rapid advancements. Are they familiar with Tesla's ambitious $10 trillion plan from March 2023 aimed at phasing out fossil fuels by 2040? Or the forecasts from ReThinkX, which suggest further drops in renewable energy costs? The International Energy Agency (IEA) has acknowledged that solar energy is on track to surpass fossil fuels by approximately 2035. Additionally, Longi Green Energy has achieved a remarkable 30% increase in solar cell efficiency.

I doubt they are aware of these developments.

Their previous reports indicate a greater focus on behavior modification, carbon taxation, government incentives, and approaches reminiscent of de-growth ideologies. Their technological forecasts appear outdated and overly cautious. They shy away from proposing comprehensive strategies akin to Tesla’s $10 trillion initiative for Earth's revitalization by 2040, which involves all stakeholders.

I often ponder when the IPCC and COP will recognize that green technology has become significantly more affordable than fossil fuels. It would be beneficial if someone could relay this information to them, as the situation is now beyond their control. If they continue to promote biofuels, it will be a clear indication that they are stuck in the past.

Innovative solutions like solar energy, wind power, battery storage, high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems, electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, and a touch of hydrogen can effectively lead us toward near carbon neutrality. Other renewable sources, such as geothermal and tidal energy, are limited in output, while increasing hydropower poses environmental concerns. Nuclear energy remains a contentious issue. The reality is that we do not require these additional renewable sources to achieve our goals.

Moreover, enhancing efficiency and advocating for de-growth represent only a small fraction of the solution. The President of the UAE, hosting COP28, recently expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of transitioning to renewable energy in combating climate change. This raises doubts about the confidence of the attendees.

While convening nations is a positive endeavor, the notion that their impact will rival the achievements of green technology companies seems misguided. Historically, governmental incentives were crucial during the early stages of technology development, but that was in the past. Today, the solution lies predominantly in green technology, complemented by modest efficiency gains and de-growth strategies.

Governments still play a role in incentivizing heavy industries and shipping, as they did with solar and EV sectors, but they must also ensure competitive pricing for green electricity. By 2030, it should ideally be half the cost of fossil fuels.

I lack precise figures, but I suspect that many attendees at COP28, based on interviews over the past five years, are primarily social scientists and activists focused on restructuring society around de-growth principles. I wonder how many, unlike their skeptical president, genuinely believe in the potential of green technology.

This represents a significant mindset shift. It is no longer the 2010s, when renewable technologies were ten times more expensive than they are today. I question whether the current COP28 participants are equipped to handle this reality.

As for the IPCC, they would benefit from adopting the IEA's perspective and acknowledging that we are on a promising trajectory toward carbon neutrality by 2040–2050. There is hope in this narrative.

They should also maintain an ongoing record of solar, wind, and battery installations, as we may start seeing reductions in carbon dioxide emissions within the next five years. Keep an eye out for any mention of biofuels in interviews. If they pop up, reminiscent of discussions from last year’s COP27, it will indicate they are still clinging to outdated ideas. Biofuels can only contribute a maximum of 10% toward achieving carbon neutrality, whereas true green technologies can account for 95%. EVs are ten times more effective and are becoming increasingly affordable compared to internal combustion engine vehicles.

One path leads to a solution, while the other reflects the legacy of the oil and traditional auto industries attempting to maintain relevance and hinder the progress of green technology.

We do not need biofuels. That mindset belongs to the early 2000s—a time long past.

Chapter 2: Embracing Change in Renewable Energy

The first video, "Ben Phipps - I Don't Think So," discusses the challenges of accepting the rapid evolution of renewable energy and the need for a shift in perspective.

The second video, "Dinosaur Jr - I Don't Think So," reflects on the resistance to change within the energy sector and highlights the importance of embracing new technologies.