Doomers: A Critical Perspective

Michael Campi discusses his decision to avoid discussing the Climate Crisis with his daughter. He states,

"My daughter is turning 34 this year and is enjoying her life. Whenever I consider bringing up the Climate Crisis, I hesitate..."

He continues, "I'm confident she is aware of the situation and has chosen to focus on her happiness; I respect that."

Are You Certain Your Home Holds That Value?

Climate risks remain unaccounted for in the valuation of American homes.

"For generations, home ownership has been viewed as a sound investment for the future. However, as wildfires and floods transform assets into liabilities, the stakes of homeownership escalate. Many economists now believe that, due to the disconnect between home prices and climate realities, a new housing bubble is forming. The extent of its growth will dictate the chaos that ensues when it inevitably bursts."

"Across the United States, homeowner's insurance costs are rising." "In regions like storm-prone Florida and coastal Louisiana, rates have surged; similar trends are evident in scorched areas of Colorado and California. Even states like Ohio and Wisconsin have seen hikes exceeding 15% within a year."

The significance of these increases is noteworthy: insurers, as risk assessors, serve as reliable indicators of reality. Due to climate change, American homes are statistically less secure than they once were.

"Even in states considered climate havens, such as Minnesota, residents are witnessing premium hikes due to increased hailstorms and thunderstorms."

A 2023 study revealed that U.S. residential properties are overvalued by $121 billion to $237 billion when accounting for current flood risks alone.

Soaring Insurance Costs Could Threaten Affordable Housing

Insurance premiums are escalating for homeowners across the board. In states like Florida, Texas, and California, obtaining insurance has become increasingly difficult. The industry cites larger, more frequent storms alongside rising home prices and construction costs as reasons for increased premiums or the cessation of policy offerings.

Affluent homeowners might forgo insurance if they can purchase properties outright. Landlords of market-rate apartments can raise rents to offset rising costs. However, for the approximately 4,000 nonprofits and developers restricted from raising rents or selling to buyers with limited budgets, the soaring cost of insurance poses an existential threat.

Real-Estate Investments for the Apocalypse

What if the worst-case scenarios unfold? What if a nuclear event occurs, or climate change transforms the world into chaos, or the next pandemic spreads through social media?

Billionaires are investing millions in custom bunkers, hoping to weather the apocalypse in comfort. Recently, a video surfaced of rapper Rick Ross boasting that his bunker surpasses Elon Musk's (notably, Musk is rumored not to own a bunker).

Ross’s bunker is designed with multiple “wings,” a “water maker,” and ample canned goods. It may even have its own bunker. But what about the rest of us? Are there budget-friendly underground shelters available for us to retreat to?

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Debating Heat-Related Deaths

Researchers are discussing the complexities of counting heat-related fatalities.

Focusing on extreme temperatures can mobilize policy changes, but it risks underreporting the impact.

Last year, over 47,000 Europeans succumbed to heat-related causes, making it the hottest year on record globally. This figure was only surpassed by the 60,000 heat-related deaths in 2022. Another recent study suggests that the death toll in Europe could triple by century's end if global temperatures rise by 3°C or 4°C beyond preindustrial levels.

While these figures are startling, they likely underestimate the true toll of heat exacerbated by climate change. Researchers remain uncertain about how to improve accuracy.

Heat-Related Death Tracking Challenges

Estimates indicate that heat claims more lives than any other extreme weather event, and the number of heat-related deaths reported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has steadily climbed.

In 2023, the CDC noted that heat was involved in around 2,300 deaths, although this figure may be revised as more records are processed. Some researchers argue that the actual number is significantly higher; one study from the late 1990s to early 2000s estimated an average of roughly 10,000 annual fatalities.

The CDC relies on death certificates from local authorities for its data, but the completion of these certificates varies significantly. Many local officials lack the resources or time to investigate heat-related causes, and there is no consistent methodology to determine if heat contributed to a death.

This presents a significant challenge. The article effectively addresses the various issues surrounding accurate reporting. Achieving a reliable count will necessitate federal standards and funding.

China's Urbanization Efforts May Hinder Birth Rate Goals

Demographers emphasize the urgency of addressing the effects of fast-paced, costly urban living on birth rates.

At a recent political assembly, China announced initiatives to create a "birth-friendly society," vowing to implement long-awaited measures from population experts, such as reducing childcare and education expenses.

However, to the dismay of these experts, Beijing also committed to increasing urban migration.

This policy aims to stimulate housing demand to support the struggling property market and to boost economic growth through enhanced productivity and consumption. Urban residents typically produce and purchase higher-value goods and services compared to their rural counterparts.

Yet, this new urbanization strategy disregards basic demographic principles. In urban areas, residents tend to have fewer children due to high housing costs, limited living space, expensive education, and the demands of work.

"The pattern is becoming increasingly evident. Global populations will not simply “continue to rise.” As nations industrialize and populations transition from predominantly rural to urban, family sizes decrease."

Even absent the Climate Crisis, global populations were already "peaking" due to the rapid trend toward urbanization. Over 52% of the world's population now resides in urban centers.

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Our Bizarre Quest for "Sea Level"

Brooke Jarvis explores the historical context behind the quest for determining sea level, as detailed in a new book by Wilko Graf von.

Oddly, mountains have influenced our perception of sea level as a stable reference point against which we can gauge the height of lofty peaks.

We confidently state that Mt. Rainier reaches 14,411 feet above sea level without pausing to consider: which sea, when, and under what conditions?

The oceans are perpetually dynamic, influenced by the moon's gravitational pull (in the Bay of Fundy, a single tide can lower water levels by over fifty-three feet), wind, atmospheric pressure, and the substantial gravitational forces from glaciers and landmasses. Even temperature fluctuations in the ocean can alter water levels by affecting the proximity of water molecules.

More significantly, ocean levels have risen and fallen by hundreds of feet during ancient climatic shifts, enabling human migration across land bridges to the Americas, Australia, and the British Isles. Currently, oceans are encroaching upon coastlines and cities at an alarming rate.

It seems absurd to treat mean sea level—something described as "ephemeral as a fleeting ray of sunshine on a winter afternoon" by Australian geologist Rhodes W. Fairbridge in 1961—as a stable benchmark.

How did we come to equate the sea with stability?

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Politicians Intensify Attacks on Scientific Education in U.S. Schools

An increasing number of states are enacting laws that challenge scientific theories.

Nearly a century ago, science teacher John Scopes faced conviction for violating a Tennessee law that prohibited teaching evolution. Although his conviction was overturned on a technicality in 1927, laws banning the teaching of Darwin's theory persisted for another 40 years, only to be ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1968.

In recent decades, conservative or religious groups opposing the inclusion of evolution in science curricula have adopted a different strategy. They now argue that if evolution is taught, alternative views, such as "intelligent design"—a proxy for creationism—should also be included.

This approach is not restricted to evolution alone. Legislatures nationwide are proposing or passing laws that ostensibly promote scientific dialogue but effectively encourage students to view established scientific theories as equivalent to unfounded ideas.

For instance, in the Kitzmiller v. Dover case over two decades ago, a federal court determined that intelligent design lacks empirical support and testable hypotheses, thereby violating the First Amendment's prohibition against state endorsement of religion.

"Theories AREN'T FACT" has become the rallying cry of these educational reformers. Consequently, they argue that religious beliefs should be presented as "competing theories."

LORD HAVE MERCY.

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The Incredible Disappearing Doomsday, by Kyle Paoletta

How the climate alarmists learned to stop worrying and embrace calm.

A significant shift occurred last October with the New York Times Magazine's annual climate issue, which showcased comic-style depictions of "The New World" that climate change could create, illustrated by Anuj Shrestha and annotated by David Wallace-Wells.

"Not too long ago," Wallace-Wells noted, some scientists feared that emissions could lead to four or five degrees Celsius of warming, inducing existential dread about apocalyptic futures.

Now a two-to-three-degree increase seems more plausible, thanks to a global political awakening, a remarkable drop in clean energy prices, heightened policy ambitions, and revisions of fundamental modeling assumptions.

The outlook has become uncertain.

In a separate essay titled "Beyond Catastrophe," Wallace-Wells elaborated, "We have halved the expected warming in just five years." The discourse is shifting from alarmism and denialism to sober assessments of the changes required by a world whose transformation, while profound, would fall "mercifully short of a true climate apocalypse."

According to a 2023 YouGov poll of a thousand respondents, in 2022, the Pew Research Center found that 39% of U.S. adults believe we are living in end times.

66% fear nuclear annihilation, 65% worry about the potential for global war, 53% believe the next pandemic could be lethal, 52% are concerned about climate change (though only 23% think it will negatively impact them in their lifetime), 46% fear artificial intelligence, 42% worry about divine intervention, 37% are apprehensive about asteroid impacts, 31% are concerned about global infertility, 25% dread alien invasions, 8% predict the end will arrive within the next decade.

"Despite the stark contrast with the optimistic vision in "Beyond Catastrophe," Wallace-Wells is not the only journalist whose framing of the climate crisis has evolved in recent years."

"Previously, climate experts provided weary summaries of daunting research; now they offer assurances of progress and a potentially bright future."

Given the rapid shift in tone, the average news consumer might conclude that a fundamental change has occurred. Perhaps, due to new solar fields and international agreements, a carbon-neutral future is imminent.

Unfortunately, that is not the reality.

"Global emissions have stabilized at levels that have already produced a +1.5°C increase in temperatures, meaning billions will suffer."

"This is not good news by any stretch."

"Ironically, it is the previous work of climate alarmists that renders the current reality appear novel and agreeable. The facts remain unchanged; only the narrative has shifted."

The "good news" is the belief that conditions won't deteriorate as severely as initially feared.

MAYBE.

I suspect that in five years we will have clarity on who is right.

But that is merely my perspective.

— rc 090124