We have now arrived at what can be termed the "end of the beginning." The year 2023 marked the final year of our "normal" existence, representing the end of the 20th Century Climate Optimum. The Climate Crisis, often referred to as the "Collapse," has commenced and is rapidly escalating this year. It is highly likely that conditions will worsen significantly in the coming years.

The expectation for 2024 is that the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) will dip below the 2023 highs, which is a common occurrence in the second year of an El Niño. Historical data indicates that SSTs tend to decline after reaching peak temperatures. For instance, at the beginning of 2015, temperatures were significantly lower than at the start of 2016. However, it is important to note that warming trends have not slowed down; in fact, this year, more energy is being absorbed by the climate system than in 2023.

The oceans absorbed approximately 15 ZJ of heat last year. This equates to around 476 million Hiro units, or roughly 3.4 Hiro units per square mile of ocean. This year, we can expect at least that amount, if not more.

Recent research, particularly a paper titled "Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations" by James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, and Makiko Sato, underscores that the global temperature continues to rise, currently estimated at 1.56°C above the 1880-1920 baseline, according to GISS data.

Hansen emphasizes that:

"Global temperatures are likely to continue rising slightly for at least a month, peaking this summer, before declining as the El Niño transitions to La Niña. However, the current energy imbalance will limit any cooling associated with La Niña."

This indicates that the average global temperature related to El Niño and La Niña is around 1.5°C, suggesting we may not see significant cooling in the near future. Instead, heat is expected to accumulate in the oceans, potentially leading to another El Niño event in 2026 or 2027.

This moment has been a long time in the making, and for those who have been following my analyses, the developments should not come as a surprise. However, with a recent surge in readership, I recognize that many new followers may find my previous discussions complex and overwhelming.

To address this, I believe it is prudent to summarize the key points from my climate analysis over the last two years. This will serve as an outline for those who wish to delve deeper into the details through my earlier publications.

Let's commence with the geopolitical implications stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

> On Politics 05 — Those who argue that the war in Ukraine is unrelated to climate change are misinformed.

Putin likely understands the potential consequences of climate change better than most, as Russia has experienced alarming warming, particularly in Siberia, since 1979. This has led to significant discrepancies between Western climate models and the realities observed in Russia.

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly four times faster than the global average, a phenomenon identified long ago but often underestimated in its implications.

With 65% of Russia's landmass covered by permafrost, the prospect of farming in these regions is bleak for centuries, if not longer. As Siberia continues to heat up—some areas registering a rise of +7°C since 1979—extreme weather events, including unprecedented wildfires, are becoming commonplace.

The permafrost is also undergoing rapid melting, with the Batagay megaslump expanding dramatically due to global warming.

This thawing is causing drastic changes to the landscape, creating unstable ground conditions and rendering vast areas unusable for agriculture.

In ten years, the landscape of Russia could be irrevocably altered due to fire and melting permafrost, while regions like Ukraine may become climate refuges due to their geographical advantages.

Putin's motives appear less about territorial expansion and more about securing resources in a rapidly changing climate. His actions, alongside those of Xi Jinping, suggest an urgency to act before the full implications of climate collapse manifest.

The term "ecosystem turnover" encapsulates the ongoing transformation of global ecosystems in response to climate change. Every ecosystem is affected; the systems we inhabit are already in decline, setting the stage for increased wildfire occurrences as dying ecosystems accumulate flammable materials.

The fires in Siberia have released carbon emissions comparable to those of entire nations, highlighting the severe impact of these events on global carbon levels.

In conclusion, the warming Arctic and declining permafrost present an alarming picture for our future. The current trajectory suggests a significant increase in atmospheric CO2 levels, potentially reaching 1300 ppm, exacerbated by the combustion of boreal forests.

The urgency of the climate crisis necessitates immediate and substantial action to mitigate its effects. We stand at a crucial juncture in history, with the potential for catastrophic outcomes if we fail to act decisively.

This is my analysis, and I hope it provides clarity and context for the issues at hand. Welcome to the ongoing conversation about our climate and its dire implications.